Taken from “The Capital”
Group’s perception more dire than city’s
By SCOTT DAUGHERTY, Staff Writer
Published October 14, 2007
A record seven people were killed last year in Annapolis.
There were 223 robberies, at least a 16-year high.And high-profile crimes in Eastport this summer along with a string of new homicides have citizens complaining that criminals are running rampant.
Through it all, city officials have said things aren’t that bad.
“Real crime statistics are down,” Ray Weaver, a city spokesman, said last week. “Although it has been popular in our culture to say the opposite, perception is not reality and the facts are there to dispute these claims.”
But a new community group formed by the former chairman city’s housing authority doesn’t buy the city’s take on the statistics.
Trudy McFall established Citizens for a Better Annapolis earlier this year, and with the help of Dennis M. Conti, the former head of the housing authority and founder of the Clay Street Public Safety Team, the group set about researching the crime data for themselves.
They released a report late last month.
“There is a perception that there is more drug activity and robberies, … and we’re finding interesting data to support that,” said Ms. McFall, a possible mayoral candidate in 2009.
“We thought it important to expose some of the details behind the broad numbers,” added Dr. Conti, who has a doctorate in computer science.
And now, with their new report in hand, the group is presenting their take on the data at community meetings in the city.
The report, authored by Dr. Conti, is not receiving a warm welcome at City Hall.
Police Chief Joseph S. Johnson called the report “crap” and “trash” and said Ms. McFall and Dr. Conti have “no credibility.”
“It’s politics,” he said, questioning the motives of Citizens for a Better Annapolis and Ms. McFall. “They don’t have a clue about those numbers.”
Ms. McFall said she just wants the city to look to the future.
“I think it’s more about policy than politics,” she said.
The numbers
Annapolis’ per capita crime rate in 2006 was 1.8 times higher than the national average, Dr. Conti found after reviewing numbers released by the city, crime statistics compiled by the FBI and Census data.
The robbery rate was four times the national average and the murder rate was three times, he said.
“What’s the reason for that?” Dr. Conti said, fearing a trend since the city has had six homicides in the first nine months of 2007.
Dr. Conti also found that from 2001 to 2006, the number of homicides committed inside the city increased 75 percent, robberies increased 45 percent and rapes increased 18 percent.
While not included in Dr. Conti’s report, overall crime remained relatively unchanged between 2001 and 2006, according to city statistics.
What the numbers show is open to debate. Even experts who reviewed the city’s statistics and the Citizens for a Better Annapolis report for The Capital can’t agree.
Dr. Ray Paternoster, a University of Maryland criminology professor, said both the city and the community group are right – to a point.
“Do you want to look short term or do you want to look long term,” he said.
City crime did go up between 2005 and 2006 and the city did post some record numbers last year, he said.
But given the statistics for the first half of 2007, Dr. Paternoster said 2006 seemed to be more of an anomaly than the beginning of a trend. He added that it’s common for crime number to fluctuate up and down from year to year and that Annapolis’ crime level has held “fairly steady” over the past 16 years.
“If there is any trend, it is downward,” Dr. Paternoster said.
Orde Kittrie, a visiting associate professor at the University of Maryland School of Law who teaches classes on state crime trends, said the city’s crime rate is still too high.
“The slight drop from 2006 to 2007 is nice, but what’s more important is the baseline is so much higher than the national average,” he said. “If I lived in Annapolis, I’d be concerned.”
Mr. Kittrie said most jurisdictions have seen increases in violent crime the past couple years, but said Annapolis didn’t follow a statewide trend in the 1990s where crime dropped.
“Annapolis seems not to have benefited from the precipitous drop,” he said.
Ms. McFall said the city should take a real look at the numbers.
“It’s a factual document based on facts. The city’s own data, analyzed,” added Ms. McFall, welcoming more analysis.
That said, the report uses few real numbers.
Instead, Dr. Conti relied on percentages and comparisons to national averages and past years to illustrate how crime is going up. For example, the report shows that the city’s murder rate was more than three times the national average in 2006, but it does not show the city had seven murders that year or that one murder more or less would result in a double-digit swing in percentages.
Dr. Conti said he didn’t use whole numbers so he could better show how current Annapolis relates to other cities and times.
“This isn’t a technique I’ve made up,” he said, defending his methodology and final report.
Dr. Paternoster said percentage comparisons are acceptable, but said Dr. Conti should have included some of the base numbers so people understand what the percentages mean.
Overall crime in 2006 was down 18 percent from a 1996 high of 2,955, but up 15 percent from a 2005 low of 2,097.
Dr. Conti said crime appeared to be going down in recent years because reports of thefts were relatively down. Since thefts represent about half of all reported crimes, a drop in thefts can mask increases in more violent crimes like murder and robbery, he said.
Ms. McFall added that FBI crime statistics don’t capture the real picture of what is happening in the streets, since there is no category for shots fired or drug activity.
“Those aren’t even in the picture,” she said.
After comparing calls for service from the first six months of 2006 to calls for service from the first six months of 2007, he found more people were calling police about quality of life problems this year. He found a more than 100 percent increase in calls about alcohol violations, an almost 40 percent increase in shots fired, and a more than 15 percent increase in drug activity.
“That goes to citizens’ perception,” Dr. Conti said.
Public housing, crime
Dr. Conti also used the report to address the relationship between the city’s crime and the city’s public housing. He mapped out where all major crimes occurred in Annapolis in 2006 and found them scattered around the entire city.
Ms. McFall said it was “dead wrong” to say residents of the city’s public housing communities were responsible for most of the crime in the city. She said legal housing authority residents represent only 5 percent of the city’s arrests, but represent 6.1 percent of the city’s population.
Mr. Weaver said Dr. Conti’s reasoning is flawed.
“Of course crime is down there (in the housing communities). The crooks leave there, go rob somebody, sell drugs and go back,” he said.
And while legal housing authority residents don’t make up that many of the city’s arrests, he argued those legal residents know a lot of criminals.
“If a dealer or a crook has a Glen Burnie or Laurel address because he has been tossed out of public housing but still spends all of his time in the old neighborhood, he is not an outsider. If he stays with his girlfriend, sister, momma, best pal, he is not an outsider,” Mr. Weaver said. “I think they have a tough sell on the idea that crime in this city is not somehow related to public housing.”
Crime fighting plans
Despite her contention the crime numbers are not that bad, Ms. Moyer announced a multi-point crime plan in August to address the perceived fears.
She called for:
The department to change the number of shifts officers work from five to three.
The department to purchase of four additional Segways.
The department to purchase of a new horse for a mounted unit.
The General Assembly to designating the entire city a drug-free zone.
The city to identify and install better lighting in dark places.
Chief Johnson to form a special police recruitment committee to help fill 23 open officer positions.
Ms. McFall said the answer isn’t in new equipment or laws though – it’s more feet on the street. She wants the department to try community policing and get officers in neighborhoods and in stores.
“Why not start some pilot (programs) and see what happens,” she said. “Let’s try some community policing … and see what results we get.”
Chief Johnson said there is no need for a pilot community policing program – his officers have been doing that “forever.”
“Each and every officer is trained in community-based policing,” he said, explaining they know that a “shooting doesn’t just happen.” He said officers are always supposed to get to know their beats and learn what is happening and what they can do to stop crime before it occurs.
Staffing shortages, however, limit how often his officers can get out of their cars and actually walk through a neighborhood.
He said what Ms. McFalls wants can only happen in an “ideal situation.”
“We don’t have those conditions,” he said, explaining the department is down 23 officers. “I don’t foresee foot patrols in every neighborhood.”
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